He is still the favorite to win. He is the incumbent President of the United States. He flies on a big blue airplane that gives him free media exposure whenever he lands. He gets to bring along politicians with whom he can curry favor. It is hard to pick off an incumbent President.
But there are warning signs on the horizon for Mr. Obama. It is not just a sagging economy that may actually be on the way down, not up. Battleground state voters are leaving the Democratic Party. According to National Journal, “Over 825,000 registered Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have departed the party rolls since President Obama’s election in 2008.”